The statistics firm tracks events around the world in all Olympic sports, then converts those results into a formula to predict who will win each Olympic medal.
At London 2012, Infostrada almost exactly forecast the British team’s total of 65 medals.
This time around, the latest update of its “virtual medal table” suggests the United States will once again lead the way, ahead of China, while Britain suffers a spectacular slump — and Bolt misses out on men’s 100m gold for the first time since 2004.
Team GB’s bosses have set a target of bettering their 65-medal tally from 2012. But Infostrada says they’ll do well to reach 45 in Rio.
“It’s bad news,” admits Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Infostrada Sports.
“GB is not going to perform anything like it did in London.
“We should expect a drop-off anyway, because London came with all sorts of advantages as the hosts, but this drop-off — as it stands — is quite large.”
Track cycling leaves a gaping hole in British medal hopes. Infostrada’s algorithm gives the Britons just one gold medal and two silvers in the Rio velodrome, in stark contrast to the seven Olympic titles won on their home track in 2012. Recent world championship failures are to blame.
In triathlon, a run of recent fourth-place finishes for defending Olympic champion Alistair Brownlee means he doesn’t even make the top three in 2016. His brother, Jonny, is forecast to pick up silver.