The Proteas are back in Asia after nearly 3 years. They are here in the Lions’ land after nearly 4 years. In fact, their last Test win in Asia was against Sri Lanka during their last trip to Sri Lanka in 2014.
Sri Lanka’s uncharacteristic batting stats in Tests
It’s the 3rd day of the 1st Test match between Sri Lanka and …
The visitors will also have the fact that the last time a non-Asian team toured Sri Lanka they were whitewashed in the back of their minds. On the other hand, the hosts will be eagerly waiting to take avenge their 3-0 whitewash back in South Africa last year.
South Africa’s Sri Lankan tour will kick-start on the 12th July at the picturesque Galle International Cricket stadium. In the build up to the much-anticipated series, the buzz among the cricket freaks in the island nation would definitely be about what will happen in the series. A statistical analysis will always give us a very clear insight to what should be expected from the series. Though the exact results cannot be predicted, going through the following analysis will definitely help you prepare yourself to enjoy a thrilling series!
After the Test against England in January 2016 which South Africa won, their next Test assignment was in August against New Zealand also in South Africa. They were involved in so much of white-ball cricket during the Test hiatus. On the other hand, Sri Lanka were busy with Test cricket during this period. They played against England in June 2016 and came back home to play Australia in July 2016. The numbers from matches played after the 1st of July 2016 have been considered for the below analysis.
Toss
Sri Lanka
| In Asia | Overall | |||||||
| Matches | Won | Lost | Drawn | Matches | Won | Lost | Drawn | |
| Batting first | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| Bowling first | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| Total | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 11 | 9 | 4 |
- Won the toss on 13 occasions and elected to bat first on 11 occasions.
South Africa
| Overall | ||||
| Matches | Won | Lost | Drawn | |
| Batting first | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 |
| Bowling first | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Total | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 |
- Won the toss on 15 occasions and elected to bat first on 13 occasions.
Galle (Venue for the 1st Test)
- Team batting first has won all 3 matches played.
- Captain winning the toss has always chosen to bat first.
- Sri Lanka have played in all 3 and lost 1. (Against India)
SSC (Venue for the 2nd Test)
- Team batting first has won both matches played.
- Captain winning the toss has always chosen to bat first.
- Sri Lanka have played in both and lost 1. (Against India)
What the number suggest is that the team batting first has a very high probability of winning. So, the captain who wins the toss will be enticed to bat first. The condition of the pitch and the weather condition will play a big role in the decision, however. Assuming the conditions to remain more or less the same as it has been in the past 2 years, the captain winning the toss will definitely bat first.
Read: Can Sri Lanka find some ‘Mahela magic’ in Galle?
Batting
Batting in Test cricket can be measured in different perspectives. The batsmen at the wicket cannot play the way he wants to all the time. He definitely should adapt himself to the situation in hand and play accordingly.
Sri Lanka
First Innings
| Average runs per inning | ||
| In Asia | Overall | |
| Batting first | 323.67 | 350.58 |
| Batting second | 333.57 | 240 |
Second innings
- 3rd Innings: 3003 runs in 12 innings overall (Average 250.25)
2156 runs in 9 innings in Asia (Average 239.56)
- Follow-on: 1338 runs in 5 innings overall (Average 267.6)
567 runs in 2 innings in Asia (Average 283.5)
- Chasing: 1885 runs in 8 innings overall (Average 235.63)
1010 runs in 4 innings in Asia (Average 252.5)
South Africa
First Innings
| Average runs per inning | |
| Overall | |
| Batting first | 359.06 |
| Batting second | 273.13 |
Second innings
- 3rd Innings: 3551 runs in 13 innings overall (Average 273.15)
- Chasing: 1233 runs in 7 innings overall (Average 176.14)
Sri Lanka has a healthy 1st innings average in Asia, irrelevant of batting first or second. Their average 1st innings total when batting second is way lower than their average when batting first. On the other hand, South Africa also are better when batting first. The conclusion we can come to by looking at the above stat is that Sri Lanka has an advantage over South Africa in the 1st innings. Compiling a good 1st innings total is always important in Test cricket. So, unless South Africa bats first, Sri Lanka walk into the match as favourites to take a healthy 1st innings lead. Don’t forget that South Africa are playing in Asia after nearly 3 years!
Read Also: Sri Lanka vs South Africa Test Series 2018 – Let’s talk Numbers
No matter what past stats depict, a gritty batsman can defeat all odds on his day. Lankan captain Dinesh Chandimal’s century at St. Lucia is the best example for such a masterpiece of an innings. Here is an analysis of the batsmen and their performance in respective batting position.
Sri Lanka
- Batting Positions
- Top order: 4269 runs with an average of an individual inning being 30.49 (34.46%)
Dimuth Karunaratne – Average 35
Kusal Mendis – Average 47.4
Dhananjaya De Silva – Average 61.5
Middle order: 6383 runs with an average of an individual inning being 36.86 (51.53%)
Middle order: 6383 runs with an average of an individual inning being 36.86 (51.53%)Dinesh Chandimal – Average 46
Niroshan Dickwella – Average 33.92
Angelo Mathews – Average 29.14
- Lower order: 1736 runs with an average of an individual inning being 14 (14.01%)
South Africa
- Batting Positions
- Top order: 5249 runs with an average of an individual inning being 39.76 (41.75%)
Top order: 5249 runs with an average of an individual inning being 39.76 (41.75%)Dean Elgar – Average 47.43
Hashim Amla – Average 37.05
Aiden Markram – Average 55.55
- Middle order: 5505 runs with an average of an individual inning being 35.74 (43.79%)
Faf du Plessis – Average 45.90
Quinton de Kock – Average 34.50
Temba Bavuma – Average 33.73
- Lower order: 1818 runs with an average of an individual inning being 17.65 (14.46%)
What the numbers show is that Sri Lanka are more dependent on their middle-order and the runs for the Proteas have come equally from both the top-order and the middle-order. Also looking at the numbers, it suggests that the Lankan middle-order is stronger than that of the visitors. If Dinesh Chandimal is suspended for the next 2 Tests, much of the burden will fall on the shoulders of the fragile former captain Angelo Mathews. Roshen Silva will also need to put on a better show than the performance he displayed in the Caribbean. The Lankan top-order will need to raise the bar of their performance.
Another aspect which will play a huge role in the forthcoming series is spin! Here is a look into how the two teams have fared against spin and pace.
Sri Lanka
- Pace/Spin
- Pace: 49.42% of runs scored overall
38.94% of runs scored in Asia
- Spin: 51.82% of runs scored overall
61.98% of runs scored in Asia
South Africa
- Pace/Spin
- Pace: 73.79% of runs scored overall
- Spin: 27.40% of runs scored overall
As expected, Sri Lanka have scored the bulk of their runs against spin. But on the other hand, the Proteas have scored almost 3 quarters of their runs against pace. Perhaps because of the nature of pitches they have played on during the past two years. This will be an interesting contest because the two teams are packed with the type of bowlers their opponents have scored less off. Another thing which also comes into the equation and makes the case strong for Sri Lanka is that Sri Lankan pitches are not the best pitches for seamers to bowl in, so advantage Sri Lanka?
Read More: Sri Lankan Test Bowlers’ stats in the past 5 years – Let’s Talk Numbers
Bowling
Bowling! The most important department of a Test team. It is important that you have good bowlers, it also important that you have bowlers who can exploit the conditions. The following analysis might help you to come to a conclusion on which team has the advantage in terms of bowling in the upcoming series.
Sri Lanka
- Have taken all 20 wickets 11 times in 24 matches
- Pace: 26.19% in Asia
39.37% overall
Suranga Lakmal – 55 wickets in 19 matches
Lahiru Kumara – 40 wickets in 12 matches
- Spin: 73.21% in Asia
Spin: 73.21% in Asia60.37% overall
Rangana Herath – 114 wickets in 20 matches
Dilruwan Perera – 65 wickets in 20 matches
South Africa
- Have taken all 20 wickets 20 times in 25 matches
- Pace: 80.82% in overall
Have taken all 20 wickets 20 times in 25 matchesKagiso Rabada – 119 wickets in 24 matches
Vernon Philander – 78 wickets in 22 matches
- Spin: 19.18% in overall
Keshav Maharaj – 74 wickets in 20 matches
Undoubtedly the series is going to be a tussle between high quality pace bowling and high-quality spin bowling. South Africa will also have the luxury of Dale Steyn, who is making a come-back after a long break due to injury. Speaking of spinners since the series will likely be played in spin-friendly conditions, Sri Lanka clearly has the better spin attack. Keshav Maharaj also shows a lot of promise through his numbers which he has achieved playing in pace-friendly wickets outside Asia. South Africa undoubtedly have the better pace attack but the Lankan pace attack is also in good form after a superb outing in the Caribbean.
All in all, the scales seem to be tipped in Sri Lanka’s favour but something we should not forget is that South Africa beat Sri Lanka at Galle in 2014. The reverse swing of Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel overcame the hosts on that occasion. This time around, the Proteas have arguably an even better bowling line-up, so the hosts will have a tough task in emerging victorious, despite the conditions favouring them
