A tiny island nation in the Indian ocean has produced champion cricketers over the years. Sri Lankan cricketers have been unique. They have had unusual grips, unusual bowling styles, unique shots delivered with utmost grace. Whether we win or lose, we hear the term ‘Sri Lankan Brand of Cricket’.
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It is difficult to explain a qualitative idea. But we can all feel what ‘Sri Lankan Brand of Cricket’ means.
In T20I cricket, we’ve lost more than we have won in the last 15 months. As I have pointed out in my earlier analysis (What is wrong with Sri Lanka T20I team), Sri Lanka’s T20I cricket is not at its peak at the moment.
The Sri Lanka T20I team is not winning enough at home, Sri Lanka has the lowest strike rate among test playing nations (117.4), Sri Lankan batsmen have the lowest balls per dismissal rate (14.54).
So, I thought of doing a money ball analysis on the improvement of these aspects based on selections.
Methodology
I considered 3 elements to select batsmen, Average, Strike rate, and balls per dismissal. For bowlers, I considered Average, Strike rate, and economy rate.
The limitation of the study is I do not have the data about the dimensions of the grounds. However, we can see, almost all grounds nowadays operate with more than 60-meter boundaries and identical placid surfaces.
I considered 27 players who represented Sri Lanka since 01 January 2019 as they’ve got the best chance to represent Sri Lanka in the upcoming T20 Cricket World Cup.
Because of the limited matches played by some of the players and not having an established domestic T20 tournament in Sri Lanka are also limitations. High priority has been given to international performances as well.
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Batting Impact
The overall statistics show our 27 players scored 2304 runs at a strike rate of 117.4 and average of 17.06.
I assume a higher strike rate and higher average give the highest impact for the team. The Sri Lanka T20I team’s average of these two combinations is 134.44.
Based on the data gathered, the following players were identified as high impact players. 8 batsmen were able to perform better than the team average (134.44) during this time and 10 players were able to have a higher impact than the median of the team (133.05).
The highest impact batsmen during this period was Isuru Udana with an impact score of 1.344 which is notably higher than his peers. The second on the list is Thisara Perera with impact score of 1.233.
Notable back benchers in this impact index are Avishka Fernando with impact score of 0.851, Kusal Mendis with impact score of 0.887 and Dasun Shanaka with 0.910.
Considering the impact index, the final XV can be consisted of the top 10 players of the batting impact index as both Wanindu Hasaranga and Udana are included in the top batting index list. All the players picked have played more than 3 games during this time.
If Sri Lanka selected these 10 players purely based on batting, it also provides possible 20 overs as Udana, Perera, Hasaranga, Mathews and Kamindu Mendis can all bowl.
Bowling analysis
For bowlers, I assumed that highest impact happens when a bowler can record a low average and low strike rate. Based on the stats gathered, top of the bowling impact index is Nuwan Pradeep with 0.508. He takes a wicket every 13 balls and concedes only 15 runs to take a wicket during that period. The average index score of Sri Lanka team during the considered time was 55.52 (Average+SR) and Nuwan Pradeep’s index score is 28.20. Therefore, he is the top impact bowler during the time. I hope selectors and coaches will close look into this fact as Lasith Malingais already in his final years as a player.
Current Sri Lankan captain and possibly the greatest Sri Lankan T20I player in history – Lasith Malinga is the 5th on this list with an index score of 0.887.
All Rounder Index
All-rounders are always a great asset in cricket. As per the methodology, a good all-rounder would be the one who scores high in batting index and low in bowling index. The one who marked the highest gap between these 2 elements is Wanidu Hasaranga with 0.426. Isuru Udana and Dasun Shanaka follow next. The stats suggest Thisara Perera is a better batsman and should focus more on his batting. Especially with the power-hitting ability he brings to the team.
Based on this index, the all-rounder choice is Dasun Shanaka as both Hasaranga and Udana are automatically in based on their batting and bowling performances. The argument would be he is a gentle medium pacer. However, the team has Thisara Perera (a better all-rounder than stats show) and Angelo Mathews (A reliable all-rounder and possibly the best batsman).
Final XV
Possible back-ups
Akila Dananjaya needs to prove his action before a comeback. If so, Sri Lanka team needs a back-up. Lakshan Sandakan has showed some progress in recent times. He has a bowling index score of 1.609 which shows he is not getting enough wickets. Even though Jeffery Vandersay is ahead of him in the bowling index, owing to the matches Sandakan has played, the possible option for Akila’s replacement is Lakshan Sandakan.
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The possible back-up option for the all-rounder spot is Dhananjaya de Silva with a batting index of 0.990 and bowling index of 1.963. He is just behind Dasun Shanaka for the all-rounder spot.
Asela Gunaratne also an option. However, he is an outlier in this analysis as he has not been picked since 01 January 2019.
Undoubtedly Avishka Fernando is an outstanding talent and the omission of Avishka because of the lack of performances in T20Is shows the limitation of statistics. However, he is a possible back-up for the top order despite the fact that he scored only 0.851 in batting index.
The other options for middle-order positions are Kusal Mendis and Shehan Jayasuriya.
Expected Performances
The earlier article (What is wrong with the Sri Lanka T20I team), showed that Sri Lanka’s expected batting score is 141/8. Let’s check what we can expect with the best possible team selected based on the index values.
With this team, Sri Lanka is expected to score 158/5. That is 12% increase compare to the current expected score of 141/8.
Sri Lanka’s performances in the past 17 months suggests Sri Lanka would concede 167 runs for 5 wickets to the opposition. However, with this team, we can expect an improvement in that aspect. With the best team selected based on above index values, the team expected to concede 159 runs and expect 6 wickets. Therefore, the team can significantly close the gap between expected batting score and expected bowling score.
In the earlier analysis, the stats showed Sri Lanka has the worst difference between batting score vs. bowling score. Therefore, this team could close that gap to only -1 runs.
For the purpose of illustration, I assume Isuru Udana is a bowling all-rounder and not used as a front line pacer. Therefore, he’ll have to bowl 2 overs each with Mathews.
Final Thoughts
This is an analysis based on stats and it has not considered qualitative aspect of the players, playing conditions or the opposition. Players such as Avishka Fernando, Shehan Jayasuriya, Dhananjaya de Silva and Kusal Mendis are unfortunate to miss out. However, that is because of their performances during the period. However, remember there is a saying ‘There are 3 lies in the world, lies, damn lies and statistics’.
*Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of ThePapare.com.
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