Can Sri Lanka still qualify AUTOMATICALLY for the ODI World Cup?

The first (and last?) World Cup Super League is set to draw to a close, with 8 decisive games remaining in the cycle. Sri Lanka and Ireland will close off their runs with 3 ODIs against New Zealand and Bangladesh respectively, while South Africa have a further 2 games up their sleeves against the Netherlands.

Who’s already in?

The top 7 spots in the World Cup are already confirmed, with India, Australia, England, New Zealand, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan having secured their spots. The West Indies currently sit in the 8^th and last automatic slot, however, with all their Super League games done, they cannot go beyond their existing 88 points.

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Who can get ahead of the Windies?

Ireland were in the running alongside Sri Lanka and South Africa to pip the Windies and scrape through as the 8^th team to qualify automatically, but a 2-0 loss to Bangladesh sees them bow out of the race and into the qualifiers set to be held in Zimbabwe later this year.

Now the ball is in Sri Lanka’s court as they have 3 games remaining to South Africa’s two, and with just a point separating them at the moment (Sri Lanka 77, South Africa 78). The Irish are at a disadvantage as they only have 68 points.

The critical factor though is that South Africa are set to face the Netherlands in their 2 remaining games, at home, while Sri Lanka will have the tougher task, coming up against the Kiwis, away from home.

*Sri Lanka, South Africa, Ireland, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Netherlands and New Zealand have fixtures remaining – (Teams with less than 24 games have forfeited some series – eg: Australia and India forfeited their series vs Afghanistan).

As it stands, South Africa seem to be the front-runner to secure the last remaining automatic qualifier spot but the West Indies, Ireland and Sri Lanka are still in with a chance.

Read More – Sri Lanka finish 5th in WTC standings

Sri Lanka’s fate is still in their hands, ahead of the 1^st ODI vs New Zealand. If they win all three games (each win is worth 10 points), they will move to 107 points and stay ahead of both the Windies and South Africa even if the latter wins both their remaining games vs the Netherlands.

If South Africa win both games and take their tally to 98 points,

• Sri Lanka will need at least a 2-0 result against New Zealand (2 wins and a NR = 25 points) to go through
• 2-1 to Sri Lanka will not suffice (20 points), neither will 1 win and 2 N/Rs unless South Africa are penalized for overate or other infractions.

If South Africa lose a game to the Netherlands/finish with 97 points or less

• Any combination that will give Sri Lanka 20+ points will take them ahead.

If South Africa lose both games to the Netherlands and stay on 78 points

• Sri Lanka will still need 11+ points (at least 1 win or 3 N/Rs) to go past the West Indies.

If Ireland beat Bangladesh 3-0 and take their tally to 98 points

• Sri Lanka will need at least a 2-0 result against New Zealand (2 wins and a NR = 25 points) to go through
• 2-1 to Sri Lanka will not suffice (20 points), neither will 1 win and 2 N/Rs unless Ireland are penalized for overate or other infractions.

If Ireland have anything other than a 3-0 result in their favour (87 points or less)

• Any combination that will give Sri Lanka 20+ points will take them ahead.

Whichever three teams that don’t make it through to that 8^th and final spot, will face Zimbabwe, Netherlands, Nepal, Oman, Scotland and two other associate teams in the qualifier, which will have just 2 spots in the World Cup up for grabs.

*This article was amended to note that the recently concluded Bangladesh vs Ireland series was not part of the Super League.