Last week’s WIN PREDICTOR came agonizingly close to nailing the trifecta. We were almost on the money with the feature game, Havelocks V Kandy.
We had Kandy to lead by 12+ at half time and then go to win by under 3 points with a total of 55+ points scored in the game. The overall result didn’t go our way as Havies stole the limelight and with it the minor premiership by beating Kandy 28-26. A wafer thin 2 points.
We had the half time score bang on with Kandy leading 19-7 but lost 26-28 at full time. The points spread finished at 54. Essentially, a missed penalty by Kandy costing them and my win predictor, a perfect trifecta. Such is life when you live on #STATS_PERT hot seat.
Other results:
CH to beat Army by 13+points: CH salutes without fail but only by 2 points: 24-22.
CR to beat Airforce by 1-12 points : They did just that by 10 points. 36-26.
Police to upset Navy by 1-12 points: Again, the value shot lands and Police pull it off. 26-17.
Really pleased that my form line call on Police, who showed good potential with some near misses, running into traffic jams in their current season prep.
Our long shot at odds was Army to score 27+ points. They scored 22 and surely, missed a certain try that would have given us a dream, punters bragging rights for a “longshot” outcome. As a professional analyst and sports handicapper, it is almost impossible to mark for handling errors and sometimes a single knock on or missed penalty could come back to haunt you. It did, on both occasions. Kandy’s loss and Army falling 5 short of 27+ points.
So, what do we have this week? — do we go conservative and look for 4 straight forward plays?… not a chance. Blind Freddy could call a win or loss on a 50-50 probability (barring a draw) but that’s not #stats_pert.
Let’s put the win predictor to the test and look for more value and adventure. A super quadrella –a four factor prediction.
Kandy V CH & FC @ Nittawela
This could be a make or break game for Kandy and put an end to their title quest. Will it or won’t?
Fitness and conditioning have plagued Kandy and it has asked serious questions of the defending champs’ staying power; often, in the last few weeks escaping on occasion but paying the price twice within three weeks. It is a HUGE concern and one which can’t be rectified in a season at short notice. It is now crystal clear. They ping the gates and get off to a flyer, only to tire out and either hang to win or get rolled at the last furlong pole. Last week- it was the shadows of the winning post.
CH, who are on paper showing red hot form, wobbled their way to a win last week when they should have really, put Army away. One of their key form lines are counter attacking rugby and Samuel Maduwantha. They both had a quiet day. Star midfielder Adam Gauder too, had his least influential game of the season. Form wise I hope it is a minor blip and not a start to a downward trend. It would be unkind to say he has regressed, where as with any good player, as they build run on form and fitness, the form should be progressive.
Taking all things into consideration, crunching the numbers and weather prediction for Saturday at “The Fortress”, I am expecting a fast start from Kandy, a very fast start where they again, take a 12+ lead at half time and get the wobbles in the second half. CH will storm right back into it and either draw level at full time or see Kandy convert a scoring opportunity in the last 6 minutes to win by less than 3 points.
Why? My anticipation of changes on their game day playing roster. Kandy should wield the axe to several of their star players based on conditioning. There may be movements to and from the bench to the starting XV.
On paper, CH have enough power to upset Kandy at Nittawela but I see this going the way of a critical infringement costing the eventual loser. My numbers suggest it’s advantage Kandy but my old club team, CH & FC, could very well make a strong case to upset this script. It will come down to who keeps their discipline in check and resists the temptation to either lay on a ruck or not release a tackled player. Ref. Charles Brown will have none of it. “Clear release of the tackled player”… you will hear that a plenty.
Win predictor: Kandy 12+ @ HT and to win by 3 – at FT. A total of 7+ tries in 80 minutes with a combined score of 27+ points at Half time.
Suggested scoreline: 34-31 Kandy
Havelock’s v CR:
Havelocks to win by 7-19 points . Although the suggestion is for a blow out, the unpredictable and inconsistent CR can cause some concern but I can’t see anything other than, the minor premiers to winning.
Army v Air Force:
Army to win by 1-12 points.
Navy v Police
Police to win by 1-12 points.
Long shot at odds:
Air force to score 4+ tries. The hard luck story of the season and will this be the day, they put a few phases together and release their need for speed?. It’s worth a shy at the stumps.
